Thursday, December 6

Syria: Will Assad go full chemical?








   The Syrian Civil War just made headlines.

    Why?

   Because, according to Western media, Bashar al-Assad's regime is so desperate that it's threatening to bust out the chemical weaponry and watch the world burn. Death by chemicals is the kind of warfare that makes comfy consumer populations in the US, Europe and even in Russia and China squirm. Chemicals are destabilizing due to the simple horror aspect of their use. Nobody anywhere wants to die WWI trench style. Sure, the trenches of the Great War are far away in the popular imagination but mustard gas, that persistent, skin lesioning horror chemical remains in the collective memory of anybody who ever picked up a history book. Chemical weapon usage is a sure sign that the Assad regime in Syria  is about to die without an exit strategy.  When you load the bombers with chemical weapons you know you've gone full Tony Montana on the whole situation.

   "Say hello to my little Sarin gas!"

   Suddenly, the world is watching the war in Syria and every major power has a stake in the game.

  Up to now, Russia and China have been blocking UN Security Council votes on intervention because all the major powers see Syria as a valuable pawn in the global energy chess game. The Middle East is ground zero and Damascus is the historic and spiritual gateway to the soul of Arabia.

   Chemical Warfare is the kind of warfare that makes general populations shudder.

   Sure, you could argue the case that it makes no difference how you die in a war. Death via explosives or via bullets or via sarin or mustard gas is all the same, right? You still end up dead so what's all the fuss about?

   Actually, no.

   Death by gas is cheating in the popular imagination. And there is wisdom in this.

   War can be fair. It is possible to kill people opposed to you via exploded metal projectiles aimed down a tight cylinder. You can also kill people via a 2000lb GBU laser guided bomb that turns your target's whole body into red meat spray. But killing by chemical is the worst kind of war by every human calculation. It's deadly and most of all, it's indiscriminate.

   There's the rub.

    Discrimination.

   At least an artillery strike is aimed at something, right?

   Chemical weapons seep across the land. They infect the body. Even if you survive, the cancer may appear later in your kid. Chemical warfare is deemed terrible by our thinking because, while we can all agree that we hate the enemy and want to kill him, chemicals in our bloodstream shouldn't destroy our children. Just because I want to kill that opposing guy with the AK doesn't mean I want to gun down his kid too. Nearly every human who ever lived loved their kid. Even though it sounds crazy, even war can have rules. 

   And chemical weapons break those rules. Chemical weapons break the rules by wiping out everyone everywhere. They're like messy nukes. At least nukes have the courtesy of vaporizing those at ground zero and are so lethal they cancel out their own use on the mutually assured destruction (MAD) paradigm. Chemical weapons are different. You can sneak them in there and maybe get away with using them. Not of course against the US or her allies. Current US policy on chem usage by foreign entities runs like this:

  "The current US retaliation policy, known as calculated ambiguity, warns potential adversaries that they can expect an “overwhelming and devastating” response if they use chemical or biological weapons (CBW) against the United States or its allies".

  In other words, you get Nagasakied if you try any "funny stuff".
   

   If Bashar al Assad is loading his fighter bombers with chems than you know he knows he's already dead.

   There is no exit strategy for him and his family.He's trapped, beaten and probably delusional.

   If chemical weapons are used then it's basically an invitation to NATO to walk into Syria and grab some amazing free Middle East real estate. Russia and China will wilt and withdraw support for Assad at the UN Security Council because once you go chemical on your population you've gone full Saddam and nobody anywhere will feel any sympathy for you.

   Assad has a selection of gases at his disposal but they mainly come down to just two. Mustard gas sure  is one ugly compound. First deployed in WWI, it likes to pool and remain skin melting in small depressions in terrain for days. The other choice, Sarin gas, makes your muscles fail on contact and you usually die of suffocation because you can't draw air into your lungs a few minutes after exposure.

   

   While Syria doesn't have much oil, for Western war planners, it has another quality that's hard to sell on the world market.

   Prestige.

   Arabian prestige.

   Damascus is the spiritual heart of the Arab world. Mecca and Medina might be nice but Damascus is the home of the real philosophers of Arabia. Damascus had street lighting while the cities of Europe were black in the Dark Ages. The neighboring Egyptians see themselves as the home of Arabian Sunni identity and their revolution is significant. But the fall of Damascus to new powers will be the most significant war in the Middle East since T.E. Lawrence captured Aqaba.

   If Assad uses chemical weapons against his own population he will instantly lose Russian and Chinese support. It'd be a suicide move. That's why I think this whole chemical story in Western media is overblown. One of those fed to the media via "unnamed government officials" that stinks of CIA subterfuge. Still,  I've always marveled at the existence of Assad. He's the son of a famed father, Hafez al Assad who would've known how to deal with Arab Spring rebellions early. His dad would have killed every protester in the street and called them communists or whatever word was necessary to gain support from a major power. Arab dictators who don't play ball in the energy chess game get designated as the enemy. Arab dictators who play ball in the game get called friends.

   That's why king Abdullah in Saudi Arabia is seen as a philantropist and major US ally and Colonel Gaddafi went down fighting with pistols like a badass from the back of a pick up truck. Life and death in the desert is a precarious occupation. It's always been that way. The difference these days is that the world economy depends on the stuff that's buried under Arabian feet. 

    Either Assad is totally desperate and ready to press the red button that will extinguish his whole dynasty Gaddafi style, or, he's already been told by the Russians that he's gone too far and there is no retirement option in a villa on the Black Sea in his future.

   Anyone who's ever played a hand of poker knows that you double down on the bluff when your credit line just got cut off. Maybe someone will believe that crazy look in your eye. So you push all your chips into the middle of the table. That's Assad right now. Chemical weaponry is a way of breaking the bank.

   Personally, I can't believe Assad is serious here.

   Using chemical weapons would be like Hitler biting into a cyanide pill.

   It's certain death multiplied by the destruction of your country.

   But you know what?

   Wounded animals are more dangerous. Dictators are prone to shitty decision making when confined to a bunker. When you know you're about to die and you've got nothing else to lose, sometimes it's fun to just sit back and set the ignition fuse on the firework.

  

   

   

   

39 comments:

  1. The second I heard Syria and chemical weapons all over the news I wondered if Wartard had anything to say about it. And you did.

    You cut through the bullshit like a boss!

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  2. When a new War Tard article pops up in my RSS feed it's like Christmas.

    But my question is, if Assad uses chemical weapons, what does the US do? Do we invade or bomb or what? The Syrian army is 300,000 strong and to hold all that ground would take a lot of US troops.

    Can we afford it? Is it worth it? Barring the imposition of a no fly zone, is the US really that interested in the "spiritual heart of the Arab world"? Like you said, they've got no oil.

    I still don't understand why the US wastes billions in taxpayer money trying to rehabilitate peoples who prefer mudhuts and guns. Syria will just open another horrible endless war. It's Afghanistan all over again.

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    1. For those who are still wondering why Syria is worth all the trouble, this article provides a brief overview which should direct you towards the specifics of the economic and geo-politcal stakes at risk. Syrian Oil Transit Hub

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  3. I love how you find humour in despair WT.

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  4. What do you mean with the hitler quote?

    Also, around the nuke part you wrote their instead of they're.

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    1. LOL at the irony of a grammar nazi asking for clarification about a Hitler quote.

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    2. Lol at your lol.

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  5. @Mariano - DO NOT QUESTION WARTARD'S GRAMMAR! Just be thankful we got to enjoy two (2) posts in one (1) month rather than one (1) post in two (2) months! Also, if WarTard likes to have a bit of scotch while he's composing, and that impacts his ability to proofread, so be it.

    ~GoodNubbin

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  6. Entertaining as usual in a "makes me lose all faith in humanity" fashion.

    What I'd love to hear from you WT is an update on the strategic situation regarding Iran.

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  7. Unfortunately, nobody really cares about Syria WT.

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  8. More kool aid from the military industrial complex.

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  9. One thing that everyone has conveniently forgotten: Syria and Assad used to be the US' 'go-to' guy for CIA black site torture and rendition in the Middle East.

    YOu read that right. Assad used to be a willing US ally in the 'War On Terror(tm)'.

    Now ask yourself, who are the most likely sources of his rumored Sarin Gas? The list of sellers is VERY short, and is headed by the US, Germany, France and Russia.

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  10. Yup, pretty much covers it all. I wouldn't call it a prestige thing, though, those pushing for a regime change are jumping on the arab spring bandwagon 'cause Syria is one of the few factors left in the region.

    If Syria falls, there's nothing left to conquer in the entire region, except for Iran. Who'd lose a valuable ally with the fall of Assad.


    Assads chemical weapons are a factor in this game, but just like nukes, they only server their purpose when they're not used. The moment you drop 'em, deterrence is null and void.

    The only question remaining, will Assad give out a Nero Decree in the case of foreign intervention?
    Possibly, if he's got nowhere else to go, he'd probably tear down everyone in range with him, rather than sharing Ghaddafi's fate.

    If he has someone willing to carry out his orders at this point, he'll probably drop everything, both on Syrian erritory and NATO troops/Israel, knowing very well that he retaliation will end up with nobody winning, as there'd be little left to win.

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  11. Panetta: Syria seems to have backed off on chemical weapons

    http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Panetta+Syria+seems+have+backed+chemical+weapons/7681014/story.html

    so This chemical weapons hysteria is again disinformation

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  12. Couldn't agree more on the whole Syria 'Arab Spring' business. In Libya most of the west couldn't go cap in hand quick enough when they thought the likes of Gaddafi would play ball like in the good old cold war days. Then local people stated to resist a bit red faces all round and reluctantly, after petitions demonstrations etc air support went to the locals fighting Gaddafi. In Britain we were loudly told there are no British or Nato ground troops and none will be sent. Those with any idea what the term Ground Air Control means knew and said this was a lie, then after Gaddafi fell it all came ot as a scandal that there had of course been ground forcess involved.
    The main problem with Bashar al Assad is that although just as evil as his father he is quite frankly an idiot who couldn't run a pop stand

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  13. The whole "Syrian chemical weapons" issue, in reality, is a few thousand Israeli/American fingers trying to hammer the "false-flag" button.

    Israel wants oil flowing through the Baghdad-Haifa pipeline TODAY without having to make any Syrian detours. They also want easy and unfettefed access to the huge reserves of oil that lie offshore Syria.

    The question isn't whether war is coming at the behest of the Zionist Nazis; it's WHEN. And with Israel's proxy US forces mobilizing the ZioNazis know it won't be long now...

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    1. Hahaha fuck. Let me guess, the holocaust didn't happen, 9/11 was an inside job and Sandy Hook was a false flag too?

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  14. The US or her allies will give Chemical Weapons to rebels/terrorists fighting the Syrian Government to use them against some other cultural group...

    oh wait, this already happened when SOMEHOW the rebels/terrorists ended up with Sarin from America's ally Turkey... and they posted a youtube video of themselves murdering a poor defenceless little rabbit with Sarin.

    The rebels/terrorists will use the chemical weapons on the civilians and the united states will be in there quick smart doing what they do best... murdering innocent brown people.

    Chemical weapons will be used. Syria will be blamed. America will invade. Russia and China will back down or be placated. Many innocent brown people will die, while a handful of guilty people will profit obscenely. There will never be any proof that the government did not use the sarin. Assad will be killed in some theatrical fashion. America will once again be assured of global hegemony. Whatever.

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    1. Dude... Alex Jones' website is that way ---->

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    2. meet back here after America leads some kind of humanitarian intervention and tell us anon is wrong.

      the USA is desperate to get in there... I you are still stupid enough to think they want to help the civilians, at a bodycount in the hundreds of thousands, with the majority being civilians, you might want to go comment over at the foxnews forums...

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    3. @ December 19
      I see the shills are in....

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  15. Looks like Asad is going all out chemical weapon-wise, based on reports coming out of Syria this morning. :(

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  16. Interesting POV. Happy holidays, WT!

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  17. Remember all those chemical weapons which made it so necessary, absolutely vital in fact, for Bushco to invaderate the Iraqis 11 years ago? The ones that didn't exist? Didn't that work out well! Yell CW today and it still works.

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  18. There's so much going on atm, and we need WT to make sense of it for us, clearly, it's time for a new post...

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  19. How is shale gas going to effect the future of energy wars? Will oil be less popular and less worth the wars America has had a history of throwing itself into for?

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  20. WARTARD!! WE NEED YOU!! PLEASE DO A POST ABOUT THE MALI INTERVENTION!!

    THERE IS SO MUCH OUT THERE. FROM THE US INVOLVEMENT IN THE MILITARY COUP, THE REBELLION IN THE NORTH BEING A RESULT OF DISPLACED NOMADS RETURNING TO MALI AFTER THE INTERVENTION IN LIBYA. THE GAS AND OIL RESERVES IN TAOUDENI BASIN THAT THE WEST EXPECTS THE WORLD TO BELIEVE MAGICALLY CEASE TO EXIST ON THE MALI SIDE OF THE BASIN. THE MALI GOVERNMENT PASSING A SET OF CODES INTO LAW FOR HYDROCARBON EXPLORATION AND MINING IN AUGUST 2004, WHICH DOESNT REALLY MAKE MUCH SENSE FOR A COUNTRY WITH NO OFFICIAL RESERVES.

    *HEAD EXPLODES*

    PLEASE WARTARD! WRITE ABOUT IT! YOU DO SUCH A GREAT JOB!

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  21. Is WarTard missing in action? I was looking forward to reading about the prospective war between Algeria and Libya (once the links between the Algerian hostage-takers and Libya's NTC are established.)

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  22. waiting, waiting, waiting...

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  23. New post coming this weekend.

    Thank you all for giving a shit :)

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    1. You promised wartard!!

      The only plausible excuse is you were blackbagged! Harold and Kumar escaped so I expect the same from you! Let us know ASAP when you escape!

      Sic semper tyrannis!

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  24. Interestingly there was supposedly a Hack of BRITAM, that cover the sabotage of the crisis by the Western Nations to implicate Assad.

    And its no where to be found online or covered by mainstream media, even Google search results are few at the moment.

    This post even got banned, http://reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1794vf/britam_defence_hacked_confidential_documents/

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  25. Mali, Algeria, North Korea - I need insight.

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  26. This wait is killing me WT...KILL(twitch)ING MEEEEEE(twitch)...

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  27. so turns out this analysis was way off....

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